Research

Seniors Housing & Care Investor Survey and Trends Outlook

Transaction volume picks up two years after initial industry disruptions.

March 31, 2022
Contributors:
  • Brian Chandler
  • Bryan Lockard
  • Jacob Sandler
  • Amber Schiada
  • Maddie Holmes

Our investor survey indicated 80% of respondents believe we have endured the worst of the pandemic and expect market fundamentals to improve, which is a vast improvement from the only 48% who had the same sentiment this time last year. Coupled with that, 76% of respondents expect their exposure to Seniors Housing to increase over the next year. The Seniors Housing sector has moved into the recovery phase since the pandemic-related disruption, backed by strong long-term demand and increased investor interest.

Report highlights:

Capital markets

  • Interest in Seniors Housing swells as investors look to alternative assets for growth and resiliency.
  • Q1 2021 saw an increase in Seniors Housing and nursing care transaction volume for the first quarter since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and it was up 61% in Q4 2021.
  • Capitalization-rate compression and price increases are expected with rising costs in Seniors Housing.
  • Rising interest rates and inflation remain top of mind for many investors.

Market fundamentals

  • Market fundamentals have bounced back as restrictions lessen and demand tailwinds persevere.
  • Seniors Housing occupancy rates have rebounded from the lowest points seen due to the disruption from the pandemic.
  • The pace of rent growth in Seniors Housing accelerated through 2021 and is expected to continue in 2022.
  • Primary and Sun Belt markets are experiencing the highest concentration of new construction.

Investor sentiment
 

  • Market participants grow more bullish on Seniors Housing and Care investment, with 76% of respondents indicating that they intend to increase their exposure to the sector in 2022.
  • 80% of respondents indicated that we have endured the worst of the pandemic and expect market fundamentals to improve. 11% of respondents say it’s still too early to tell, while another 9% expect to see a decline in property valuations and an increase in loan delinquencies over the next 12 months.
  • Most respondents indicated they expect Seniors Housing capitalization rates to remain the same throughout 2022, at 47%. Another 38% expect them to decrease.

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