Demand has soared in the Arlington for-sale residential market following the HQ2 announcement
Arlington’s for-sale residential market has reset four months following the HQ2 news.
April 09, 2019
- Arlington’s for-sale residential market has reset four months following the HQ2 news. We took a look at two of the indicators that have experienced the biggest swings since November’s announcement: contract ratios (the number of listings under contract compared to active listings) and the change in median listing price.
- Post-HQ2, the first spark of residential demand impacted contract ratios greatest as the overall indicator grew from 0.7 to 5.2 in November. As competition grew and active listings evaporated, demand has spread to surrounding markets: Shirlington’s contract ratio peaked to 7.0 in December 2018, while Columbia Pike’s rose to 3.4 in January 2019.
- Following the spike in demand, pricing has re-adjusted, leading to listing prices across Arlington neighborhoods jumping between 17% to 55% compared to last year. Ahead, months of supply will shrink, hovering under 1.0 month and days on market will dip, remaining under 60 days, creating an environment where demand outpaces supply. That environment not only is ripe for increased pricing, but more creative buyer tactics, inclusive of all-cash offers, forgoing inspections and/or eliminating contingencies, which will challenge homebuyers, especially first-timers.
- As some homebuyers are pushed out of Arlington, the next likely places that will see demand are located downtown along the Blue Line into Foggy Bottom and the West End and along the Yellow and Green Lines into Gallery Place, Mount Vernon Triangle, Southwest, Ballpark, Shaw, U Street and Petworth. To date, these neighborhoods have seen normalized demand and pricing patterns compared to recent trends the past year or two, but when new talent migrates into the region for new job opportunities beginning in late 2019, expect these areas to post some of the most considerable demand and thus upward trajectory in pricing, both in the mid-term and over the long-term.
Source: JLL Research and Bright MLS. Crystal City is zip code 22202, Shirlington is zip code 22206, Columbia Pike is zip code 22204.