DFW’s Class A apartments – resilience during the last downturn
Despite the recession’s impacts, DFW did not fall as far and recovered more quickly than most major markets
July 13, 2020
Occupancy decline (peak-trough)
2.1 average percentage point decline
Effective rent losses (peak-trough)
6.4% average decline
Rent growth (trough-current)
27.5% average rent rebound
- In the last cycle, DFW’s Class A occupancy peaked at 92.4 percent. That was at the end of 2007.
- The Great Recession resulted in 140,000 DFW jobs lost between 2007 and 2009, or 4.6 percent of the job base.
- This slowdown resulted in occupancy declining over 8 quarters to hit 89.9 percent at the end of 2009.
- This 2.5-point drop was in line with most markets and not as serious as what Seattle, Phoenix, or the Bay Area saw.
- These softer DFW conditions did cause effective Class A rents to retrench. It took 6 quarters for DFW to hit bottom, compared to 7 to 13 quarters for several major markets.
- From this peak to trough, DFW lost 3.9 versus 6.4 percent for the major markets. This made DFW one of the most resilient markets with only a $49 drop in monthly effective rent.
- It took until mid 2012 for DFW rents to recover to their prior peak. While 9 quarters may seem long, many major markets took 13 to 18 quarters.
- Led by its stronger economy, 2012 saw DFW rents rebound before most markets. Since bottom, Class A rents are up 24.4 percent, only slightly behind the average of the major markets – and keeping DFW still comparatively affordable.