DFW – population growth, where are we & where are we going? Let’s have a talk…

How many people live in DFW? Using recent metrics, the BEA pegs our region at 7.9 million.

March 16, 2020
  • The demographic provider, ESRI, calls it 7.7 million, and our NCTCOG estimates that we are at 7.4 million.
  • A 500,000-spread is pretty significant, but we are looking at the data too closely and missing the point.
  • Because we are 10 years past the Census, these numbers are “best estimates”.  Fast growth markets, like ours, make it very difficult to benchmark a simple number like population – unlike predictable slower-growth areas.
  • With a refined population number up for grabs until the 2020 Census is completed, accurate forecasts are even tougher – especially when looking at small areas such as cities and towns or zip codes and census tracts.
  • The “heat map” above illustrates population growth over the next several years.   The key take away here is not the actual growth numbers to compare the small areas.  Rather, it is the pattern and direction of growth.
  • Because our population is forecast to hit more than 11 million by 2045, growth will occur everywhere – and push along established transportation corridors, as well as create higher-density development in key infill locations.   


Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; ESRI; North Central Texas Council of Governments; JLL Research