Snapshots

Grand Champion Steer pricing a “bellwether” for DFW’s industrial sector – what will 2020 bring?

The culmination of Fort Worth’s Stock Show, one of the largest in the US, is the Grand Champion Steer auction.

February 18, 2020
  • This year, “Cupid Shuffle” fetched a record $300,000 – dramatically exceeding the $240,000 bids in 2015 and 2017.  It was also the first time since 1982 that a Hereford won, European Crosses being the trend the last several years.
  • While no “true” relationship exists between DFW’s industrial market and steer pricing, the auction is a real measure of confidence in the economy.
  • It is clear in the chart that in economic slowdowns, Grand Champion pricing declines – and pricing rises in the good times (see 2004 to 2008 as an example).
  • With DFW’s industrial vacancy standing at near historic lows of sub-7.0 percent, what does a top-tier price portend for 2020 – especially given its dramatic increase?
  • As 2020 begins, DFW’s industrial sector remains in a good supply-demand balance, with no reason for any pessimism near-term.  And, if steer pricing patterns hold, maybe vacancy drop slightly lower through this year. 

 

Source: Fort Worth Stock Show; JLL Research