Elections often impact leasing, with activity front-loaded, cooling as voting nears
December 19, 2023
- Jacob Rowden
- Elena Lanning
- With 2024 marking a presidential election year in the United States, some companies may time leasing decisions to prepare for potential shifts that could come from a change in administration.
- Historically, election years see nearly the same overall volume of leasing activity as non-election years, but activity in election years is front-loaded in the beginning of the year and declines as the election approaches, contrasting a typical year of office leasing peaking in the fourth quarter.
- While some companies accelerate or delay decision making that falls near an election, overall impacts to office leasing activity are minimal. Since 1997, overall office leasing volume in election years has fallen short of non-election years by just 0.9 percent.
- Government, contractor and lobbyist demand has also historically correlated with political alignment, as single-party rule clarifies federal spending and regulatory priorities. With $1.6 trillion in federal discretionary spending planned for FY2024, the government will continue to heavily impact private sector demand.