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Inflation decreases in the Southeast, may be a harbinger of unemployment.

  • ​​During the downturn in 2008,  unemployment rose precipitously from 4.8 percent in March 2008 to 9.1 percent in January of 2009. During that period, the inflation rate declined precipitously, even moving into deflation for several months, which confirms the Phillips Curve.

  • Again during the middle of 2014, the Orlando Unemployment rate began to decline slower than in previous months, and another period of deflation occurred.

  • In November of 2017, unemployment increased by 20 basis points while inflation growth dropped by 50.0 percent month over month. 

  • The recent tax reform bill has spurred national business investment and many companies have distributed bonuses to rank-and-file employees, but there have been no announcements of major employment increases in Orlando due to tax reform. If employment continues to grow, then the budding trend may reverse in a few months​.​

Source: JLL Research

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