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Tenants with expiring recession-era leases face a landlord favorable market

  • ​Over the next 12 quarters we are going to see approximately 8.4 MSF of lease expirations throughout Silicon Valley. The volume is fairly evenly split between large block users with leases over 50,000 SF and smaller tenants who occupy under 50,000 SF at 4.3 MSF and 4.1 MSF of expirations for the segments respectively.
  • While the volume of expirations per quarter hovers below 1 MSF through Q3 2020, we see an uptick in Q4 2020 as tenants who signed sizable leases at the beginning of the cycle see their ten year terms coming to an end.
  • Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, Palo Alto and North San Jose are expected to see between 1.3 MSF and 1.5 MSF of expirations each through 2020.
  • Office rents have increased 50 percent since 2010 and 13 percent since 2015, so tenants with expiring ten year leases face significant sticker shock while those who signed three to five year leases have a softer landing. ​​

Source: JLL Research​




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