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United States

Report | Quitters never win? for May 23, 2018

Summary

​The outlook for resurgent economic growth in the second quarter brightened due to robust retail sales. April sales increased and February and March's data was revised upward. With the consumer accounting for the majority of the U.S. economy, stronger retail sales are needed if the economy is going to accelerate. The housing market sent some mixed signals in April, but overall the trends in the market remain intact and are heading upward. Quitters are winning the current labor market, with wage gains outperforming those of job stayers. That is motivating employees to quit jobs at a rate unseen since 2005 as they go in search of better fortunes at other employers. The underlying economic environment still supports CRE markets, even at this relatively late stage of the cycle. But Treasury yields are increasingly hitting multi-year highs across the yield curve and the prospect for a fourth rate hike of 25 basis points this year now stands at about even. 

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