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United States

Report | Beware the three bears for May 16, 2018

Summary

​The Goldilocks economy has not left the premises yet. Moderate economic growth coupled with modest inflation remains the norm after inflation readings for April fell below expectations. But the three bears – faster wage growth, stronger inflation, and higher interest rates – are lurking in the background. While any of them could suddenly surge, we remain concerned with the cumulative impact that they will have over time. Eventually they could slow economic growth. Oil has emerged as the outlier in the modest inflation story, with oil prices jumping by over 50 percent in the last year. In the near term, our outlook for CRE remains firm – accelerating economic growth in the middle of the year will support CRE fundamental and capital markets. 

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