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United States

Report | All’s fair in a trade war for April 11, 2018

Summary

​Trade tensions overshadowed optimistic economic data last week. The administration began listing Chinese products totaling roughly $50 billion worth of electronics, aerospace, and machinery goods that could be hit with a 25 percent tariff increase. The Chinese then threatened to retaliate with equivalent tariffs on an equivalent amount of U.S. exports. In response, the administration threatened an additional $100 billion of tariffs to which the Chinese responded that they are prepared for a trade war. Meanwhile, the labor market continued to perform well. Although job gains fell below expectations in March, the underlying trend remains strong and wages continue to edge slowly upward. If the labor market further tightens this year as we expect, wage growth will accelerate. We are paying close attention to the inflation data this week and expect it to accelerate as temporary forces that restrained inflation last year subside. 

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