Report | Circling the wagons on trade for March 7, 2018
Amidst all the euphoria in the markets after the presidential election of 2016, the key risk that we highlighted was trade protectionism. Though it seemed long forgotten, especially after the passing of tax cuts and increased government spending were set to boost the economy, trade protectionism reared its ugly head last week in the form of punitive tariffs on steel and aluminum. On their own, their key impact will be to raise domestic prices. But there's a risk they'll trigger a mutually destructive trade war, putting the current expansion in peril. For now, we remain optimistic about the outlook for the economy and commercial real estate, but the downside risks have increased significantly over the past week.
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