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United States

Report | Souring retail sales for February 21, 2018


​Retail sales for January proved disappointing, contracting and falling below expectations. Despite the weak retail sales, inflation, measured by the consumer price index (CPI), surprised on the upside with apparel prices posting their largest monthly gain since February 1990. Bond yields jumped after the inflation data, pushing the 10-year Treasury to its highest rate in about four years. While we do not think this pace of inflation is sustainable, we expect continued upward pressure on prices throughout 2018. On the policy front immigration reform stalled yet again, putting the “Dreamers” and the labor market potentially at risk if the DACA issue is not resolved by next month. The administration finally released its infrastructure plan, though it seems underwhelming and unlikely to have a significant impact on the economy.​

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