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United States

Report | Economic Insight for December 20, 2017

Summary

​True to form—the economy largely followed the script last week. Congress produced a reconciled version of the tax bill and will vote on it this week. The legislation should pass and be signed into law by the president. In the short-run it could boost economic growth by up to 50 basis points beyond 2017 growth levels. In the long-run the legislation does little to address the structural forces holding back economic growth so its impact should be fleeting. On cue, the Fed raised rates another 25 basis points last week. After hiking three times in 2017, we expect the Fed to hike three more times in 2018. If tax reform stimulates the economy beyond our expectations in 2018, then the risk of even more rate hikes lies on the upside. Ryan Severino unpacks Santa’s sack this week and sifts the gifts from the lumps of coal.​

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