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United States

Report | United States Employment Update - September 2016


​2016 continues to be a volatile year for the labor market, with August employment growth falling below expectations and totaling just 151,000 net new jobs. On the other hand, unemployment once again remained stable at 4.9 percent as growth in the workforce has aligned with employment gains. Due to the stability of the official rate as well as total and white-collar unemployment in recent months, we believe that the market's cyclical low in terms of unemployment has likely been reached. The Federal Reserve has been keenly watching jobs figures as a key metric to determine the timing of the next rate hike. While the overall fundamentals of the labor market remain strong, with the overall economy is approaching its cyclical peak, unemployment consistently below 5.0 percent, next to no upward movement in initial claims and employment gains relatively diversified, the Federal Reserve is likely to hold off on the next rate hike due to inconsistent monthly additions and weaker-than-expected wage growth.​

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